Saturday, December 1, 2012

Congratulating Themselves For Their Loss

So the latest is that the Romney camp are all slapping fives because they "won" the specific demographics that they set out to win. Are any of them letting that ugly "but we lost" elephant into the room? Apparently not.

A recent ariticle in Slate.com points out at how ecstatic the Romney folks are about capturing the selected targets they set out to win. This is a bit like Doctors congratulating themselves over how successful the operation was even though the patient's dead.

The Romney folks are thrilled because they won the over $50 K a year crowd, White Women, Whites Under 30, and Independents. But I could make an argument that none of that is necessarily true. But even so, when are these folks gonna realize that their perspective of America is a warped perspective and they are so out of touch that unless the GOP seriously re-tools, they may never win another Presidential election. (In the not too distant future, a wealthy old white guy will never have a chance. You are going to be seeing the last of white Presidents in your life-time. And just for the way Obama's been treated, I hope I never see another white President.) See, even though they might have (doubtful) won in these categories, these categories can't win you the election. I have said it before and I'll say it again: Romney ran a masterful, perfect campaign......if it was 1959.

Let's look at this stuff.

1. Incomes Over $50K.
The Romney folks claim they won the $50K-$100K crowd by 6 points. Romney's chief strategist Stuart Stevens actually bragged that "to get middle class America we must be doing something right." If they would actually bother to check (US Census Data) they'd discover that 49.8% of Americans have less than $50K a year in household income. So, to me, that doesn't necessarily mean they wooed the the middle class, but that they really don't know who the middle class is.

2. Whites Under 30.
Stevens brags "While John McCain lost white voters younger than 30 by 10 points, Romney won those voters by 7 points - a 17 point shift." However, joint national exit polling showed that President Obama beat Romney 60% to 36% among voters under 30. So where does the Romney camp get the brass to claim a victory? Simple. Don't count minorities. Those pesky brown and black folks sure can be a pain in the side to old white guys who are only concerned about protecting the wealthy. Almost 40% of voters under 30 were black or latino.

3. White Women.
Glen Bolger (of Public Opinion Strategies- the ones who polled for the Romney Super PAC) didn't think the Republicans had any problem with women. "The first thing I want to point out about the exit polls is that Mitt Romney won among white women by 14 points - 56% to 42%....so next time you hear Republicans are struggling with 'women', push back with that. Yes, the GOP is getting killed with minority women - 4% with black women, 23% with latino women - but the whole "war on women cost Romney the election" is simply not true."
Oh yeah? Let's look at those pesky exit polls again. Among white women Romney was 6 points worse than among white men. Latino women 10 points worse than latino men. Romney won by 7 points among men. So it seems like there's some kind of disconnect between women and the GOP. And it appears not to be exclusively a minorities problem.

4. Independents
Romney did well with independents. He won the battle but lost the war. He captured independents by 5 points, giving him a 1.5% advantage in the overall vote - but that wasn't enough to overcome the fact that most people are Democrats and when everybody votes, Democrats win. Dems outnumbered Repubs 38% - 32% at the polls.

So although the Romney camp won all of the groups they targeted to win, and are bragging about it, they still haven't realized that the groups they felt were key, weren't really key at all. Not enough to win the election anyhow. The Republicans went after the vote of white women. Why white women? Because you know, white women are the only ones that count. Keep thinking like that GOP and the struggles are only beginning. As I have said before, the Republicans can disenfranchise blacks, latinos, surplus Democrats, gays, people that earn less than $50K a year, all they want. But they won't win the big ones doing that. America is changing. The GOP is still staggering in a "what happened?" stupor. But sooner or later they will have to realize that we are all Americans and we all count.

And Mitt, this wasn't about "gifts". You played the same game as the President. He just chose to have more folks on his team.

And finally I have to end with a quote from the astute and wise William Murgan who posted on Facebook: "I've been away for awhile....How did that whole 'take back our country' thing work out?"

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